As the Finnish Parliament confirms the historic dismantling of the state-run gambling monopoly, new analysis from market intelligence resource Bonusetu highlights the critical economic flaw that forced the change: a massive flight of high-volume players to offshore online casinos.
The analysis, based on the 2023 THL population survey, identifies a highly concentrated "whale economy" where 2.2% of players are responsible for 50% of total gambling consumption. With the state monopoly, Veikkaus, struggling to retain these high-value customers, the government has approved a transition to a competitive licensing system, scheduled to open on July 1, 2027.
The "Shadow Market" Worth Half a Billion
While the monopoly was designed to channel revenue to the state, Bonusetu’s review of the data confirms a significant "leakage." Approximately 15% of all Finnish gamblersbypassed the local monopoly to play on international sites in the last 12 months.
This migration is heavily fueled by the demand for convenience. Offshore casino operators have gained a competitive edge by adopting casinos without registration (Pay N Play), a technology that allows new casino players to skip lengthy sign-up forms and play instantly via bank authentication. Industry estimates suggest this streamlined offshore channel now accounts for 500 million to 550 million euros in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR).
"The monopoly model didn't fail because of casual players; it failed because it couldn't retain the high-volume demographic," says Tommi Korhonen, CEO of Bonusetu. "Our analysis of the consumption data shows that the Finnish online casino market is heavily reliant on a small percentage of active players. These users are tech-savvy, demanding better user experiences and higher return-to-player (RTP) rates — features they overwhelmingly found in the offshore market."
Key Market Insights for Investors and Operators:
- The digital tipping point: For the first time, the share of players gambling exclusively online (30%) has surpassed those playing exclusively in physical locations (24%), signaling the obsolescence of the traditional kiosk-based model.
- Motivation for migration: When asked why they chose offshore operators over the Finnish monopoly, 30% of players cited better odds and winning potential as their primary motivation.
- High operator churn: Offshore players are highly promiscuous, holding an average of 3.9 active accounts, indicating intense competition among brands vying for Finnish customers.
The 2027 Licensing Opportunity
The new legislation will allow private operators to apply for licenses to offer online casino, slots, and sports betting starting in March 2026. This move is widely seen as an attempt to "channelize" the 2.2% of high-volume players back into a taxed and regulated environment.
"The introduction of a license system is not just about opening the floodgates," adds Korhonen. "It is a strategic move to recapture the 'whale economy' that has already left. For operators entering Finland in 2027, success will depend on offering a superior product that competes directly with the agile offshore brands that currently dominate this segment."
About Bonusetu
Bonusetu is an authoritative information hub for the Finnish gambling industry. Focused on the 2027 regulatory shift from monopoly to licensing, we provide expert commentary, market statistics, and coverage of all things we deem relevant to the sector. Our goal is to bring clarity and transparency to one of Europe's most dynamic digital markets. For more information, visit bonusetu.com.
Disclaimer
This press release is provided for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial or investment advice, nor an endorsement of any gambling activity or operator. The analysis referenced is based on publicly available data and industry estimates, which may be subject to change. Gambling laws and regulations vary by jurisdiction and evolve over time. Readers are encouraged to consult official regulatory authorities and qualified legal or financial professionals to confirm current requirements and risks. Participation in gambling activities involves financial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals.
Media Contact
Tommi Korhonen
CEO, Bonusetu
media@bonusetu.com
